“luck is where preparation meets opportunity.”
if that’s true, then luck is a function.
functions are computable.
we just haven’t written the equation yet.
everyone treats luck like weather — something that happens to you.
but if luck has inputs (preparation, opportunity) and an output (the intersection), then luck isn’t weather.
it’s math.
let’s write it out.
luck = f(preparation, opportunity)
where:
- preparation = everything you’ve done to understand & be ready
- opportunity = the surface area you’ve exposed to possibility
- f = the function that maps inputs to outcomes
the intersection isn’t random. it’s the output of a function with inputs you control.
preparation is a vector sum.
not just magnitude — direction matters too.
you can work hard (magnitude) in the wrong direction and the resultant vector is small.
you can work less but with precise direction and the resultant vector is large.
preparation = Σ(effort × direction)
the depth of your understanding multiplied by the focus of that understanding.
opportunity is an integral.
surface area compounded over time.
∫(exposure) dt
the more surfaces you expose, the more potential intersections.
the longer you expose them, the more the integral grows.
| component | what it is | how to increase it |
|---|---|---|
| preparation | vector sum of understanding | depth × focus |
| opportunity | integral of surface area | exposure × time |
| luck | f(prep, opp) | maximize both inputs |
the “lucky” are people who found the intersection but never mapped the function.
they stumbled into the output without understanding the inputs.
it works — until it doesn’t.
because you can’t replicate what you can’t compute.
i used to say “luck favors the prepared.”
now i think that’s half the equation.
luck favors the prepared who maximize surface area over time.
preparation without exposure is potential energy that never converts.
this next phase of my life is different.
i’m not hoping for luck.
i’m engineering probability.
understanding the primitives. tuning the weights. mapping the function.
luck isn’t mystical.
luck is unmapped math.
and math can be solved.
luck is a function.
the intersection is computable.
stop praying for weather. start writing the equation.